Colorado - The likelyhood of boatable flows returning to the Dolores River has dropped from earlier anticipated "forecasts" from February and March. As of March 15th, the most recent forecasts from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) and the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) show a potential spill of 44,000 acre-feet or nothing, respectively. 

The CBRFC Most Probable forecast from March 15th, sets inflows at McPhee Reservoir at 92% of the April - July average. The NRCS 70% excedance value has been reported at 75% of the April - July Inflow average. The CBRFC  forecast indicates that we could have a spill of approx. 44,000 acre feet.  With the NRCS forecast, there will not be a spill.  As always, we will have a more clear picture of what to expect for this year's boating season with the April 1 forecast. Stay Tuned.

In the 1977 Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Dolores Project, the Bureau of Reclamation committed itself to time the releases of most of the reservoir operation and spill water into the Dolores below McPhee Dam to help mitigate the project’s adverse impact to whitewater boating.  Specifically, releases for predicted “flood inflows from the high runoff that normally occurs during late April. [sic] May, and June” would be scheduled in advance for the benefit of whitewater boaters. The 1977 DEIS states:

-From the second half of April to the end of June, the releases for flood control, averaging 66,000 acre-feet, would be made in a pattern conductive to white-water boating on the river. AW has found that the average from 2002-2012 only averaged 57,000, with half the years showing zero boating.

The 1977 FEIS restates the BORs commitment in the mitigation section:

- Adverse impacts on white-water boating below McPhee Reservoir would be mitigated by operation of the reservoir to allow the available boating flows to be [(1)] scheduled in advance and [(2)] grouped together in periods of 5 or more consecutive days.

The Bureau describes the purpose of whitewater mitigation as “encourag[ing] the most efficient use of the river” by “providing the best boating conditions consistent with project purposes  and announcing the occurrence of those conditions to boaters in advance[.]" Notably, the mitigation section does not restate a volumetric amount of water that will be released for whitewater boating.

Because no Project water is allocated to whitewater boating, the Bureau is not obligated to release water for boating in years where spills are not predicted to occur in the months of March through July. Furthermore, based upon the historical record used to model the impacts of the Project during permitting, the Dolores Project is expected to result in most years – 24 out of 46 – having no boating opportunities at all.